The Value of Crab Pots (MATH)

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by Skip Sandwich, Nov 28, 2016.

  1. Skip Sandwich

    Skip Sandwich Void-Bound Voyager

    Hey all, I was bored today and decided to calculate out exactly how valuable crabs pots are under various perks, and the results were somewhat suprising (to me at least).


    Freshwater

    Mariner
    Crayfish - 75g * 1/3 chance = 25g/day
    Snail - 65g * 1/3 chance = 21.66g/day
    Periwinkle - 20g * 1/3 chance = 6.66g/day

    Average Daily Profit 53.33g/day - 5g/day for bait = 48.33g/day
    Expected Yearly Profit 5412.95g

    Luremaster
    Crayfish - 75g * 28% chance = 21g/day
    Snail - 65g * 13% chance = 8.45g/day
    Periwinkle - 20g * 21.45% chance = 4.29g/day

    Average Daily Profit 33.74g/day
    Expected Yearly Profit 3778.88g

    Angler
    Crayfish - 112g * 28% chance - 31.36g
    Snail - 97g * 13% chance - 12.61g
    Periwinkle * 30g - 21.45% chance - 6.435

    Average Daily Profit 50.40g/day - 5g/day for bait - 45.40g/day
    Expected Yearly Profit 5084.80g



    Ocean

    Mariner
    Lobster - 120g * 1/7 chance = 17.14g/day
    Clam - 50g * 1/7 chance = 7.14g/day
    Crab - 100g * 1/7 chance = 14.29g/day
    Cockle - 50g * 1/7 chance = 7.14g/day
    Mussel - 30g * 1/7 chance = 4.29g/day
    Shrimp - 60g * 1/7 chance = 8.57g/day
    Oyster - 40g * 1/7 chance = 5.71g/day

    Average Daily Profit 62.28g/day - 5g/day for bait = 57.28g/day
    Expected Yearly Profit 6415.36

    Luremaster
    Lobster - 120g * 3.4% chance = 4.08g/day
    Clam - 50g * 12% chance = 6g/day
    Crab - 100g * 6.46% chance = 6.46g/day
    Cockle - 50g * 17.442% = 8.72g/day
    Mussel - 30g * 14.22443% chance = 4.27g/day
    Shrimp - 60g * 5.2907% chance = 3.17g/day
    Oyster - 40g * 3.1744% chance = 1.27g/day

    Average Daily Profit = 33.97g
    Expected Yearly Profit = 3804.64g

    Angler
    Lobster - 180g * 3.4% chance = 6.12g/day
    Clam - 75g * 12% chance = 9g/day
    Crab - 150g * 6.46% chance = 9.69g/day
    Cockle - 75g * 17.442% chance = 13.08g/day
    Mussel - 45g * 14.2443% chance = 6.41g/day
    Shrimp - 90g * 5.2907% chance = 4.76g/day
    Oyster - 60g * 3.1744% chance = 1.90g/day

    Average Daily Profit = 50.96g - 5g/day for bait = 45.96
    Expected Yearly Profit = 5147.52


    TLDR;
    For maximum profits take Mariner and place in ocean, otherwise take Angler and place wherever you like.
    Luremaster is a trap and you shouldn't take it unless you actually want trash items for some reason, in which case you should take Angler anyway.
    Crab pots with mariner are slightly more profitable than Bee Houses when placed in the ocean, but of course have much more involved upkeep requirements. You may still find it worthwhile if space is limited on your farm.

    Fun Facts
    Crab pots in freshwater have a roughly 37.5% chance of catching trash w/o mariner, and ocean crab pots have a roughly 38% chance.
    The longest unbroken string of crab pots I was able to arrange on the Hilltop layout is 91 crab pots long from end to end and produce ~4398.03g/day on average w/mariner.
     
      Last edited: Nov 28, 2016
      nevyn21, WilliamZ and Firebird Zoom like this.
    • ShneekeyTheLost

      ShneekeyTheLost Master Astronaut

      Trash items are quite valuable, and a good source of refined quartz as well as chances for other valuable goods like cloth and coal.

      Thanks for doing the math, looks nice.
       
      • Skip Sandwich

        Skip Sandwich Void-Bound Voyager

        @ShneekeyTheLost

        good point on refined quartz, and early on in my games I typically do craft/purchase a few pots for the express purpose of obtaining enough refined quartz to jumpstart my quality sprinkler production. Once I have enough sprinklers though, my traps typically sit there unused for the rest of the game as I have too much else going on.

        I have a plan to start up a Hilltop farm soon so I can properly get a feel for how much profit recycling trash nets you on average, I figure if I can get full 999 stacks of each trash type I can get some rough % chances of how likely you are to say get cloth instead of torches from the soggy newspaper. This week looks like it will be pretty busy for me, but hopefully I'll get some time this weekend.
         

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