The Thread of Randomness

I like it when you become good enough friends with Caroline and she starts sending you gifts in the mail. "You probably have more veggies than you know what to do with, but here's another one!" I haven't checked if it's season-appropriate or not though...be funny to get a cauliflower in fall!

 

Yeah, Caroline always sends spring veggies no matter what time of year it is.

 

Maybe she has a greenhouse.

 

Wanted to do the Level 100 challenge the honourable way, and after a few near misses running out of time at level 90+, I finally got there without crafting any staircases

 

(keep in mind I'm not playing the beta)

How difficult is it to get to level 100 in the Skull mines, if you don't use a SMAPI mod to stop time while inside the mine? Given that there's no elevator and you only have until 1:50 AM (well, less really, if you don't want those phantom Joja guys finding you and charging you money to get back home) I assume it would be QUITE difficult...

 

If you're not using stairs it takes lots of mega bombs and luck. You need lots of holes, but be really careful below level 90 because if you jump in a hole and drop past level 100 you missed it and have to restart on another day. If you are using stairs you should be able to get to level 100 easily.

EDIT: Also, keep in mind that a warp totem or the return scepter lets you mine right up till closing time.

 

This is something new in the Beta, right?

 

Yeah, it's one of the secret notes that gives you the quest. If you haven't got the quest level 100 is just an empty room.

 

How hard would it be to make it to where the 'winners of festivals" can be someone new? Abby always wins the egg hunt if the farmer doesn't, Willy will win the ice fishing contest if the farmer doesn't, Pierre wins the grange if the farmer doesn't, etc. etc. etc. Why can't Marnie win the grange display or Elliot win the ice fishing contest? Why can't Maru or Abby win the Flower Dance? It makes the game a little more fun knowing that one year Vincent actually got more eggs than Abby or Marnie's hard work in the grange display paid off and she actually beat Pierre on a given year...

This might be too difficult to code (I'm no coder so have no clue) but it would make the festivals more fun if there wasn't a predetermined winner if it's not the farmer.

 

That awkward day when you receive 2 interesting letters in the mail:

1. Pierre says he has special flowers for sale for when you want to romantically court someone.

2. Abby invites you to come to her room that same night.

 

To add a little randomness would be a simple thing. The thing is the farmer can't just watch the events. The events only take place if the farmer participates and once the farmer knows how to win an event they can win it every time. My preferred egg festival route nets a dozen eggs, 13 if I don't miss a step. If you watch them, the NPCs aren't even actually collecting eggs. They're just walking a path... The same path every year.

To simply stand around while the NPCs "collect eggs" in order to see which one the computer randomly picks as the winner, for me, doesn't sound any more entertaining than rolling a die to see if my favorite number comes up.

Also to note, the spring dance isn't a competition. That Haley is the "Queen" every year is just a point of dialogue. It would add a little suspense, possibly very little, if each season it was a different NPC marching around in the middle, stressing about getting their dance steps just right. It wouldn't add a whole lot of depth to the story, and would be more difficult to code than a simple random egg festival outcome.

I'm sorry if I'm a wet blanket. As I've said before, role playing isn't my strong suit.

 

It took me a few attempts, had several runs finishing in the 90s or high 80s, but the time I eventually got there I think it was about 1am. I always chose a maximum luck day, to increase the chances of finding ladders and drop holes.

I also mainlined coffee the whole day for the +1 speed boost. I then ate spicy eel for another +1 speed to get super zoomies, and also gets +1 luck, to keep those holes coming. Two spicy eel is enough for the buff to last the whole day.

Lucky lunch for +3 luck would also be a possible choice, but megabombs blow up so many stones at once, and hence so many chances to spawn a ladder or shift, that I prefer the extra speed to rush round and use my iridium band to hoover up all the goodies that I reveal.

Slime charm ring means I am safe from slimes, which makes life easier. General health is replenished with salmonberries, which don't interfere with the buffs. I think I took about 200 mega bombs with me, but I still had plenty left.

You can even do away with the return scepter for skull runs, that leaves an extra slot free for whatever you might pick up, just continue to mine until 2am. It's only 1,000g penalty to pass out, and at that stage of the game it's a meaningless amount

 

Have the odds in at the Stardew Valley fair changed in beta? I just got like 4 or 5 orange in a row...!!

 

I had the same occurrance while playing multi player.

2 player , I was the farm hand and we replayed the day several times under different circumstances to determine if we could sort out the cause.

1. It appeared to when we played the game at the same time. He would get the green, I would get the orange. We would not be in lockstep choosing colors and spinning, so as to be exactly getting the opposite, but he was playing and spinning while I was playing and spinning.
2. It appeared that when I waited until he was done playing and went to buy things, then I would get the greens like normal.
3. I also think there was one time where I went first and got greens, then after I was done he played and got greens. But that was the first time we played the day and we got home to find out he had forgotten to empty the grange. Hence the first restart of the day. And the first restarted day was the first day I got oranges, and we were always playing at the same time because we wanted to speed the day up.

Was anything the same for you?

 

I'm actually in a single player farm, got mostly oranges (except when I bet orange). Only won twice and ended up lossing all the star tokens.

 

Absent any information on a change, the most likely explanation is that you simply don't understand probability. You're seeing something that isn't there.

I'm not being flippant; many people simply fail to truly appreciate that something which is merely unlikely is still virtually certain to happen in a large enough sample size, the law of small numbers, a cognitive bias closely related to the gambler's fallacy

The probability of orange is 0.25, so the probability of 5 oranges in a row is about 0.00097, ie this happens almost 0.1% of the time, or about 1 in 1,000. SDV has sold millions of copies, and therefore a run of 5 oranges in a row will have happened to literally thousands of players.

For a series of independent events such as flipping a coin, rolling a die or spinning a wheel, the equipment has no memory - the fact that the last four spins may have been orange will not affect the probability that the next one is orange, which remains static at 0.25

 

There are no significant changes to the wheel logic between 1.2.33 and the current beta, although there aren't really any predefined odds set in the code either. Most of what we believe about the green bias is from repeated trials in game and through simulations that mimic the spinning function. It's most likely just poor luck.

 

My strategy on the wheel is to bet no more than 1/2 of my tokens, always on green. On two occasions, before the beta, I was down to 31 tokens before it turned around and the averages started working in my favor. That's five orange spins in a row. It happens!

 

I've never seen this before. Does anyone know if this means anything? I haven't heard of any possible relationship between Harvey and Kent's family.

 

I don't think it means anything. In my area, children often use Aunt/Uncle with the names of close friends of their parents and I've always interpreted this dialogue in that way.