The Birthday Problem (and related musings)

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by One More Day, Sep 14, 2018.

  1. One More Day

    One More Day Cosmic Narwhal

    I'm near the end of Y2 in yet another farm and my crops are now all harvested, so aside from trying to find the last few artifacts, my main focus for the last few weeks is, as usual, the social push to get everyone's hearts maxed out before Grandpa does his thing. Obviously I have had a keen eye on everyone's birthday, so I can take advantage the 8x multiplier on friendship points when I gift them, and it suddenly struck me that everyone's birthday is different, nobody shares.

    Although it was a long time ago now, I still remember having to work out in probability classes at school that you only need a group of 23 people for a greater than 50% chance that two of them share a birthday, and that's with a real world calendar of 365 days. In SDV there are 33 people who have birthdays in only 112 days, plus eight festivals, which one can't help noticing are also never coincident with birthdays. That's 41 events, at a rate of more than 2½ per week, that never occur on the same day. With so many more people/festivals and so many fewer days than the real world calculation, it would be almost certain that two people would share a birthday, or one would be on a festival, at some point during the year. Almost certain as in 99.99% likely. I think CA missed a little trick here, to just invigorate this aspect of the game a fraction more. In fact, it's going to be pretty decent odds, I'd hazard a guess at somewhere between a 1 in 3 chance and a 1 in 2 chance, although I can't be arsed to work it out exactly, that you could expect there to be a day with three coincident events.

    It would have made socialising that little bit more of an effort if, on perhaps two or three occasions through the year, you had to do more than one on the same day. Just so you really had to work for it, maybe you'd have to visit Sandy in the desert, and then one of the more out-of-the-way villagers like Elliott or Willy on the beach, the Wizard in his tower, or Sebastian locked away in his parents' basement. Or perhaps you have to find someone on a festival day, say Linus in the mountains the same day as the Ice Festival in the forest, or Dwarf in the mines the same day as Luau on the beach.

    Also it would have made for an interesting little subplot if Pierre had had his birthday on a Wednesday. Once the bundles were completed and he opened on Wednesdays you could have gifted him, but if you did the Joja repairs then he remained shut and you could never give him a birthday gift, instead you would have had to work extra hard to befriend him in a more mundane fashion.
    • UnexpectedParole

      UnexpectedParole Phantasmal Quasar

      The winter night festival now over-laps with the wizard's birthday I think. So there you go.

      As for the rest of it. Why do you need multi- bonus days ?
      I frankly am very happy that I only "have" to find 1 character on any given day for their birthday bonus and it is not a short day due to a festival. If I want that 8x day then I have a little more free time to sort out when and where I will find them while still operating my farm. If there were two birthdays on the same day then that would possibly be difficult to work out all the logistics and deliver both while still operating. -Unless you also get a gathering of folks where you visit and drop both gifts at once. Which in my opinion would make things way too easy. I like the current mix.

      Otherwise if you just want large groups of folks to make large gift giving events without 8x bonus.
      There are already several in game gathering spots of villagers where you can do mass gift giving / socializing things. I am already working on compiling a list since I want to do a game where I do big santa type runs and mass gift efficiently to boost friendships with the masses.

      off the top of my head.
      1. Tuesdays the ladies meet at caroline's for exercise. You can get in one trip: Pierre, Abigail, Marnie, Leah, Robin, Caroline, Emily and Jodi. 8 of 30 seems like a significant number to me. And that doesn't account for an easy dip into harvey's and the swerve over to george, alex and evelyn. This is every season I believe.
      2. Friday night at the saloon is nearly for me. Gus, Pam, Emily, Leah, Pierre, Marnie, Mayor Lewis, Willy, Clint, Abigail, Sam, Sebastian, Shane, Robin, Demetrius. That is 15. I though I found Elliot there too, but I suspect that as my relationship with Leah goes up and I always miss Elliot through the rest of the time I wonder if he is not schedule changed to say home.
      3. Saturday night is the same as Friday night, except you add Harvey and lose, Pierre, Robin, Demetrius, Abigail, Sam, and sebastian.

      I think there are others like monday afternoons there are a glut of folks on the square near noon in the spring, jodi, caroline, vincent , harvey, marnie and sam walk through. penny is nearby. evelynn comes out.

      4. Summer day around the community fountain area? Haley, Demetrius, Caroline ..others too

      Now I am going to have to download the npc tracking mod to run a game and get this all down.. :)

      anyway. my penny's worth of thoughts on the matter.
        gummywyrms likes this.

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